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By Shannon Pite

The government is likely to face significant challenges as the new early entitlement offer expands, independent public spending watchdog the National Audit Office (NAO) has warned.

In a new report published today, the NAO highlighted ‘insufficient staffing’ as the main barrier to expansion, describing the government aim of increasing staff numbers by 40,000 or 12% by September 2025 as “ambitious” given that the workforce only increased by 5% between 2018 and 2023.

The NAO also warns that government efforts to increase staff numbers could result in large numbers of new or less qualified staff entering the workforce, which in turn could “jeopardis[e] the quality of provision”.

The report also reveals that:

• the Department for Education (DfE) originally planned to pilot the extended entitlement in some local authorities, but cancelled this due to “affordability constraints”
   
• the DfE has assessed the likelihood of delivering the places required in September 2024 and 2025 as “problematic”
   
• feedback collected by the DfE in March 2024 found that while 82% of local authorities were confident there were in enough places to meet increased demand in April 2024, this falls to just 34% for September 2024 and 9% for September 2025

Commenting, Gareth Davies, the head of the NAO, said: 

“Following the Spring Budget 2023, the government quickly established a programme to extend early years entitlements and sensibly staggered its rollout to reduce delivery risks.

“Despite the crucial role providers will play in delivering these reforms, consultation with the sector was hampered by the restrictions that apply when developing budget proposals. DfE then cancelled early testing plans, which exacerbated the significant uncertainty about the sector’s capacity and financial sustainability.

“The next phase of the reforms will be significantly more challenging, with little contingency and flexibility in its ambitious timetable. The Department must monitor the programme closely and respond promptly to emerging risks.”

Neil Leitch, CEO of the Early Years Alliance, said:

“The NAO is absolutely right to highlight the significant challenges facing the government as it attempts to roll out the extended entitlement offer.

"With the sector currently facing one of the worst staffing crises in its history, ensuring that there are enough early years places to fulfil the huge promise that ministers have made to parents is likely to be near-impossible without urgent action from government - namely, a comprehensive workforce strategy underpinned by adequate long-term funding for the sector.

“What’s more, we share the NAO’s concerns that the government's desperate bid to create places will result in the implementation of more and more policies that put the quality of provision at risk, which in turn is likely to have a particular impact on children from more disadvantaged backgrounds and those with additional needs."

“It is vital, therefore, that the government doesn't just take what it wants to hear from today’s report, but instead listens and addresses the warning signs laid bare by this report. The road ahead is set to be an incredibly challenging one for the government and providers alike – and it is utterly pointless for ministers to pretend otherwise.”